During the last seven races of the World Championship, the driver who signed the pole He claimed victory the next day. This is the longest streak since the 2022 World Cup, when the ground effect was recovered in F1, and consolidates the resounding statistics of 2025. In 15 of the 21 rounds held (71.4%), the first on the grid has also reached the checkered flag in the lead. A percentage noticeably higher than 2024 (45.8%), 2023 (63.6%) and 2022 (45.4%) and that must be taken into account now by Max Verstappen. This weekend, the Dutchman’s title chances go through their first pole at the Strip Circuit, one of the two World Championship tracks where he has not yet set the best time on Saturday.
Sunday will mark one year since the last title of Mad Maxalso resolved in Las Vegas, after a slow race, where he started fifth and finished fifth. On the other hand, the current demands seem pressing, almost desperate, in the face of Lando Norriswhich leads him by 49 points. To attest to this, one fact is enough. In the event that Verstappen wins the three remaining races (Las Vegas, Qatar and Abu Dhabi) and the sprint race from Qatar, the World Cup leader would still be proclaimed champion with three fifth places and one fourth.
So the last hold for Verstappen will be to reissue one of the strangest resolutions in the history of F1, with which this World Cup has curious parallels. This is the feat of Kimi Raikkonen in the 2007 World Cup, when the Finn snatched the title from Lewis Hamilton y Fernando Alonsoengaged in a fratricidal fight within McLaren. During that Japanese GP, resolved with abandonment by the Spaniard and victory by his great adversary, the Ferrari driver rose from the penultimate place to third on the podium. However, with two races remaining, with 20 points to hand, he had 17 less than Hamilton (the equivalent of 44 points according to the current system). He needed two victories and a catastrophe from the leader. And that was precisely what happened.
The bandage before the wound
During the Chinese GP, McLaren devised a calamitous strategy for Hamilton, also the protagonist of a serious mistake that left him stuck in the pozzolana. Two weeks later, in Interlagos, the rookie British suffered a gearbox failure that would hand the title to Raikkonen on a plate.
“I prefer a repeat of 2007 rather than choosing one driver over another,” he said. Zak Brown a couple of weeks ago. A strange declaration of intent, appealing to the famous papaya ruleswhose severity was accentuated last Monday. “Max can be harsh, too aggressive on the track. His arrogance comes out in those moments,” said the McLaren CEO. “If you look at some of the great F1 champions, they also had a certain arrogance. They stuck out their elbows, but Max sometimes went too far,” added the American, putting the bandage on before the wound.
Because throughout the 21 races of 2025, Norris has only left empty-handed in Montreal, due to a “stupid spin” – in his own words – and in Zandvoort, due to an engine failure. Meanwhile, his partner Oscar Piastrisecond in the table 24 points away, barely scored a zero in Baku. With these precedents, Verstappen should place his diminished hopes in McLaren’s poor performance in Las Vegas. In 2023, Norris suffered a terrifying accident, while Piastri, eighteenth on the grid, was tenth at the finish line. Last year, the Australian finished seventh, just behind his teammate.
Hamilton congratulates Raikkonen after the 2007 Brazilian GP.
After his triumphs in Mexico and Brazil, where he dominated with total authority, Norris seems to have shaken off that fatalism that had so often related him to Nigel Mansell. However, during the celebrations at Interlagos, Lando himself insisted that if Verstappen had started from the leading positions (and not from the pit-lane) would have taken the victory.
Two conclusions can be drawn from these events in Sao Paulo at Red Bull. On the one hand, the disastrous performance of the RB21 left its two drivers stranded in Q1, an unusual occurrence for the team since the 2006 World Championship. However, the engineers at Laurent Mekies They opted for the risk, disassembling their car twice, until they found the ideal configuration, both in terms of aerodynamics and the engine.
In any case, Verstappen needs other actors to get involved in the fight, thus subtracting points from McLaren. Given the ineffectiveness of his partner Yuki Tsunodathe options in Las Vegas go through Mercedes. A year ago now, George Russell He commanded the double of the Silver Arrows, who did not miss one of the seven timed sessions. With the lowest temperatures of the year on the asphalt, the team of Toto Wolff He squeezed the potential of his car, while Ferrari also obtained good results thanks to its top speed on the straights.